Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 27.9, Tennessee State 17.8 at Nissan Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Jackson State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 45.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Jackson State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Tennessee State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jackson State by 33 and Tennessee State by 12 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Jackson State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Jackson State 26, Tennessee State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Jackson State / Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jackson State -15.5 → Jackson State -12.5 | 49.5 | -650 / +435 |
| DraftKings | Jackson State -15.5 → Jackson State -12.5 | 49.5 | -650 / +435 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jackson State -10 | 45.6 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Jackson State -12.5 | 49.5 | 18% |
| Blended projection | Jackson State -12 | 50.1 | 20% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee State win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 18% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Jackson State -10.1 · market Jackson State -12.5 · difference +2.4 pts (Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 45.6 · market 49.5 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Tennessee State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Jackson State 27.9, Tennessee State 17.8 | Jackson State 75%right winner | 8.1 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Jackson State 27.9, Tennessee State 20.1 | Jackson State 67%right winner | 5.8 | 2.0 |
Final: Jackson State 26, Tennessee State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Jackson State vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Jackson State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.8 | 12.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 7.10 | 4.72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89 | 5.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 260.3 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 211.8 | 175.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.5 | 176.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 2.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.42 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.08 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 30.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 44.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 9.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 19.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71 | 2.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.64 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 62.8 |
| Stat | Jackson State | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.8% | 30.3% |
| Passing success rate | 43.5% | 30.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0% | 23.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.6% | 30.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.3% | 51.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.3% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Jackson State schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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