Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida A&M 28, Tennessee State 19.7 at Bragg Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Florida A&M wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 47.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Tennessee State is 0-3, scoring 10 and allowing 39.7 points per game (-29.7 per game). Florida A&M is 1-2, scoring 13.3 and allowing 38.3 points per game (-25 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee State by 14 and Florida A&M by 31 about 80% of the time.
Florida A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida A&M by about 6.2.
Result: Tennessee State 29, Florida A&M 26. Tennessee State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee State / Florida A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida A&M -4.5 → Florida A&M -3 | 47.5 | +123 / -154 |
| DraftKings | Florida A&M -4.5 → Florida A&M -3 | 47.5 | +123 / -154 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida A&M -8.5 | 47.6 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Florida A&M -3 | 47.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Florida A&M -4 | 48.5 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida A&M win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Florida A&M -8.3 · market Florida A&M -3 · difference +5.3 pts (Florida A&M view)
- Total
- model 47.6 · market 47.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Florida A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee State 19.7, Florida A&M 28.0 | Florida A&M 71%wrong winner | 11.3 | 7.4 |
| New formula | Tennessee State 20.5, Florida A&M 27.6 | Florida A&M 68%wrong winner | 10.1 | 6.9 |
Final: Tennessee State 29, Florida A&M 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee State vs Florida A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.9 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 33.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.72 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44 | 6.51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 151.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.6 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 194.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.08 | 0.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.30 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17 | 1.10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 30.7% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2% | 47.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 14.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.44 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.8 | 63.6 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.3% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 30.2% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 31.9% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.2% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 38.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.4% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.7% | 48.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 73.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee State schedule · Florida A&M schedule · all Week 3 projections
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