Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tennessee State 24, Eastern Illinois 22 at Nissan Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Tennessee State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Eastern Illinois is 2-6 against the 32nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 16.8 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-14.8 per game). Tennessee State is 2-6 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.5 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-13.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Illinois by 21 and Tennessee State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Eastern Illinois would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Eastern Illinois vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 17.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.6 | 31.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.79 | 4.83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.11 | 6.66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.9 | 83.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 134.4 | 230.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.6 | 181.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 35.5% | 36.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 40.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 13.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.99 | 1.94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.27 | 3.03 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.1 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.7% | 32.5% |
| Passing success rate | 35.5% | 38.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 28.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.8% | 43.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3% | 42.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.2% | 28.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.8% | 48.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Illinois schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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