Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Charleston Southern 24.9, Tennessee State 19.9 at Nissan Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Charleston Southern wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Charleston Southern is 3-4, scoring 23.9 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+1.2 per game). Tennessee State is 2-5, scoring 19 and allowing 33 points per game (-14 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Charleston Southern by 28 and Tennessee State by 18 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Charleston Southern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charleston Southern 20, Tennessee State 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8 points and the total by 17.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charleston Southern 24.9, Tennessee State 19.9 | Charleston Southern 63%right winner | 8.0 | 17.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Charleston Southern 20, Tennessee State 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charleston Southern vs Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6 | 12.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 26.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.44 | 4.72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98 | 5.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.9 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.9 | 175.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.4 | 176.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 2.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 30.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 44.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 9.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 19.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 2.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.13 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.2 | 62.8 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.7% | 30.3% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 30.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.7% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 23.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 51.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.1% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charleston Southern schedule · Tennessee State schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.