Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama A&M 25.9, Tennessee State 22.9 at Louis Crews Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Alabama A&M wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Tennessee State is 0-2, scoring 13.5 and allowing 44.5 points per game (-31 per game). Alabama A&M is 1-1, scoring 31 and allowing 27 points per game (+4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee State by 20 and Alabama A&M by 26 about 80% of the time.
Alabama A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama A&M by about 0.9.
Result: Tennessee State 3, Alabama A&M 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 24 points and the total by 15.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee State / Alabama A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee State -1.5 → Tennessee State -3.5 | 49.5 | -147 / +118 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee State -1.5 → Tennessee State -3.5 | 49.5 | -147 / +118 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama A&M -3 | 48.8 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee State -3.5 | 49.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee State -2.5 | 50.3 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama A&M win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama A&M -3 · market Tennessee State -3.5 · difference +6.5 pts (Alabama A&M view)
- Total
- model 48.8 · market 49.5 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward Alabama A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee State 22.9, Alabama A&M 25.9 | Alabama A&M 58%right winner | 24.0 | 15.8 |
| New formula | Tennessee State 23.5, Alabama A&M 31.8 | Alabama A&M 70%right winner | 18.8 | 22.3 |
Final: Tennessee State 3, Alabama A&M 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee State vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.9 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.72 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44 | 6.65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 125.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.6 | 222.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.4 | 221.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.08 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17 | 1.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 30.7% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 15.6% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.44 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.8 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Tennessee State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.28 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.3% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 30.2% | 40.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 31.9% | 20.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.2% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.4% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.7% | 56.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 68.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee State schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 2 projections
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