Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Illinois 30.7, Northwestern (IA) 27.1 at Hanson Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Western Illinois wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northwestern (IA) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Western Illinois has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northwestern (IA) by 19 and Western Illinois by 26 about 80% of the time.
Western Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Illinois by about 1.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northwestern (IA) 14, Western Illinois 65. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 47.4 points and the total by 21.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northwestern (IA) 27.1, Western Illinois 30.7 | Western Illinois 59%right winner | 47.4 | 21.2 |
| New formula | Northwestern (IA) 28.4, Western Illinois 30.9 | Western Illinois 56%right winner | 48.5 | 19.7 |
Final: Northwestern (IA) 14, Western Illinois 65. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Northwestern (IA) schedule · Western Illinois schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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