Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Alabama 24.5, Eastern Kentucky 23.2 at Roy Kidd Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: North Alabama wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
North Alabama is 3-2, scoring 24.4 and allowing 22.2 points per game (+2.2 per game). Eastern Kentucky is 1-3, scoring 16 and allowing 32 points per game (-16 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Alabama by 24 and Eastern Kentucky by 21 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Alabama 20, Eastern Kentucky 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 11.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Alabama / Eastern Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Kentucky -1.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | -102 / -122 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Kentucky -1.5 | 47.5 → 49.5 | -102 / -122 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Alabama -1.5 | 47.7 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Kentucky -1.5 | 49.5 | 52% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Kentucky -1 | 50.2 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Kentucky win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 52% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model North Alabama -1.3 · market Eastern Kentucky -1.5 · difference -2.8 pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 49.5 · difference -1.8
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward North Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Alabama 24.5, Eastern Kentucky 23.2 | North Alabama 53%right winner | 2.7 | 11.7 |
| New formula | North Alabama 24.6, Eastern Kentucky 23.3 | North Alabama 54%right winner | 2.6 | 11.9 |
Final: North Alabama 20, Eastern Kentucky 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Alabama vs Eastern Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Alabama | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3 | 19.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.2 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 4.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.98 | 5.53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.6 | 164.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.4 | 120.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 208.6 | 184.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 288.2 | 221.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 3.17 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 36.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.83 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.6 | 61.0 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 33.8% |
| Passing success rate | 32.5% | 36.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.6% | 27.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 32.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5% | 33.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.6% | 41.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.7% | 70.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9% | 51.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Alabama schedule · Eastern Kentucky schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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