Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Abilene Christian 26.5, North Alabama 23.3 at Braly Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Abilene Christian wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Abilene Christian is 3-4, scoring 20.6 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-4.3 per game). North Alabama is 4-2, scoring 23.7 and allowing 21.2 points per game (+2.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Abilene Christian by 26 and North Alabama by 19 about 80% of the time.
North Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Abilene Christian is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Abilene Christian 31, North Alabama 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.2 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Abilene Christian / North Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -4 → Abilene Christian -2.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | -158 / +127 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -4 → Abilene Christian -2.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | -158 / +127 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Abilene Christian -3 | 49.8 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -2.5 | 49.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -2.5 | 50.4 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Alabama win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Abilene Christian -3.2 · market Abilene Christian -2.5 · difference -0.7 pts (North Alabama view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 49.5 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Abilene Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Abilene Christian 26.5, North Alabama 23.3 | Abilene Christian 58%right winner | 0.2 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Abilene Christian 25.2, North Alabama 24.7 | Abilene Christian 51%right winner | 2.5 | 9.1 |
Final: Abilene Christian 31, North Alabama 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Abilene Christian vs North Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Abilene Christian | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.6 | 25.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 39.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.02 | 5.26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.7 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.8 | 199.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.9 | 208.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.1 | 288.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.07 | 2.17 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 45.4% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 2.83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 77.6 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 32.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9% | 26.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 33.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.7% | 37.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 41.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 45.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0% | 60.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · North Alabama schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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