Matchup analysis
Our model projects Central Arkansas 28, North Alabama 26 at Estes Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Central Arkansas wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
North Alabama is 4-4 against the 45th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+0.8 per game). Central Arkansas is 2-6 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.1 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-5.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Alabama by 21 and Central Arkansas by 24 about 80% of the time.
Central Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field North Alabama would be favoured by 0.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Alabama vs Central Arkansas: stat comparison
| Stat | North Alabama | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.9 | 25.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 30.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.41 | 6.04 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00 | 6.22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.5 | 220.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.8 | 175.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.1 | 158.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.4 | 218.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 3.13 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 1.63 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 44.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 36.8% | 45.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85 | 3.60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.11 | 3.70 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0 | 65.5 |
| Stat | North Alabama | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.9% | 47.9% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 39.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.5% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 34.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.7% | 41.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8% | 47.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.5% | 65.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7% | 46.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Alabama schedule · Central Arkansas schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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