Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tarleton State 37, North Alabama 22 at Braly Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Tarleton State wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.4 points and 58.4 combined points.
Tarleton State is 8-0 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 22.6 points per game (+19.3 per game). North Alabama is 4-4 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 38 and North Alabama by 7 about 80% of the time.
North Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tarleton State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tarleton State vs North Alabama: stat comparison
| Stat | Tarleton State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.9 | 23.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.6 | 23.1 |
| Yards per play | 7.98 | 5.41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86 | 5.00 |
| Rushing yards per game | 211.4 | 152.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 293.4 | 182.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.1 | 122.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 276.8 | 218.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 3.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.88 | 2.25 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | -0.04 |
| Success rate | 47.1% | 39.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 36.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 17.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.62 | 3.85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.84 | 4.11 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 62.0 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | North Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.32 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1% | 41.9% |
| Passing success rate | 51.0% | 37.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.8% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0% | 28.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9% | 32.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.9% | 38.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.3% | 56.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0% | 59.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tarleton State schedule · North Alabama schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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