Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chattanooga 27.9, Samford 14.8 at Finley Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Chattanooga wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.1 points and 42.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Samford is 1-4, scoring 21.2 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-4.6 per game). Chattanooga is 3-3, scoring 20.2 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 9 and Chattanooga by 36 about 80% of the time.
Chattanooga gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chattanooga by about 11. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Samford 3, Chattanooga 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.9 points and the total by 20.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Samford / Chattanooga) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Chattanooga -11.5 | 43.5 → 40.5 | +314 / -430 |
| DraftKings | Chattanooga -11.5 | 43.5 → 40.5 | +314 / -430 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Chattanooga win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Chattanooga -13 | 42.7 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Chattanooga -11.5 | 40.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Chattanooga -12 | 42.2 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Chattanooga win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Chattanooga -13.1 · market Chattanooga -11.5 · difference +1.6 pts (Chattanooga view)
- Total
- model 42.7 · market 40.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Chattanooga than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Samford 14.8, Chattanooga 27.9 | Chattanooga 80%right winner | 2.9 | 20.7 |
| New formula | Samford 15.5, Chattanooga 28.3 | Chattanooga 80%right winner | 3.2 | 21.8 |
Final: Samford 3, Chattanooga 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Samford vs Chattanooga: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Samford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.6 | 28.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.9 | 33.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.76 | 6.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49 | 6.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 93.5 | 205.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.7 | 197.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.9 | 173.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 281.5 | 237.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.91 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 1.27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.18 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Samford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 40.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.9% | 12.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.61 | 3.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 3.69 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Samford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.18 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 24.4% | 38.1% |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 45.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 37.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.4% | 38.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.8% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4% | 55.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.5% | 54.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · Chattanooga schedule · all Week 6 projections
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