Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Carolina 31, Samford 25 at Seibert Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Western Carolina wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 56.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Western Carolina is 3-5 against the 25th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 32.6 points per game (-2.7 per game). Samford is 2-6 against the 81st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (-5.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Carolina by 29 and Samford by 16 about 80% of the time.
Samford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Western Carolina vs Samford: stat comparison
| Stat | Western Carolina | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9 | 17.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.6 | 23.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.75 | 4.72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.1 | 105.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.5 | 189.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.1 | 203.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.8 | 153.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 0.63 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 3.00 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 41.4% | 35.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.8% | 11.6% |
| Havoc rate | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9% | 16.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 3.28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07 | 3.20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.1 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Samford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4% | 30.6% |
| Passing success rate | 42.9% | 34.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8% | 23.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5% | 26.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 30.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.4% | 56.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.5% | 32.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Carolina schedule · Samford schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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