Matchup analysis
Our model projects East Tennessee State 33, Samford 17 at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: East Tennessee State wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Samford is 2-6 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (-5.2 per game). East Tennessee State is 6-2 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.4 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+11.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Samford by 7 and East Tennessee State by 39 about 80% of the time.
East Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Tennessee State by about 13.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Samford vs East Tennessee State: stat comparison
| Stat | Samford | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9 | 33.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 21.9 |
| Yards per play | 4.72 | 6.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75 | 5.28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.0 | 196.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 212.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.0 | 154.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 153.6 | 178.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Samford | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 35.7% | 42.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 11.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6% | 12.1% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.28 | 3.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 67.0 |
| Stat | Samford | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.6% | 45.4% |
| Passing success rate | 34.2% | 45.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.9% | 14.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 31.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 29.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.8% | 47.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 38.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.1% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.3% | 68.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · East Tennessee State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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