Matchup analysis
Our model projects Auburn 41, Samford 5 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Auburn wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.5 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Samford is 2-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 23.1 points per game (-5.2 per game). Auburn is 4-3 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.4 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Samford plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Auburn's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Auburn by 13 and Auburn by 58 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Auburn by about 33.4. The game is on SECN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Samford vs Auburn: stat comparison
| Stat | Samford | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9 | 25.4#93 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 24.1#69 |
| Yards per play | 4.72 | 5.48#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75 | 5.60#70 |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.0 | 183.4#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9 | 195.0#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.0 | 159.3#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 153.6 | 248.4#118 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.00#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.14#32 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.29#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 4.29#136 |
| Stat | Samford | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.04#93 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.08#90 |
| Success rate | 35.7% | 40.6%#100 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 42.6%#88 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 13.6%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6% | 10.3%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.0%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9% | 15.8%#123 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.28 | 3.98#82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20 | 3.70#55 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | own 28#112 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | own 28#51 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 69.0#36 |
| Stat | Samford | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.09#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.00#107 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.07#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.09#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.6% | 42.3%#87 |
| Passing success rate | 34.2% | 39.1%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.9% | 15.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.4% | 32.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 31.9%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.8% | 43.3%#53 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 36.2%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.1% | 65.2%#52 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 32.3% | 66.7%#101 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Samford schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 12 projections
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