Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Abilene Christian 30.3, Mercer 24.7 at Wildcat Stadium (TX) in Week 4. That is a lean: Abilene Christian wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 55 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Mercer is 2-2, scoring 27.3 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+6.8 per game). Abilene Christian is 1-3, scoring 18 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mercer by 17 and Abilene Christian by 28 about 80% of the time.
Abilene Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Abilene Christian by about 3.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Mercer 34, Abilene Christian 17. Mercer won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mercer / Abilene Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -3.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +187 / -239 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -3.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +187 / -239 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Abilene Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Abilene Christian -5.5 | 55.0 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -3.5 | 48.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -4 | 49.8 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Abilene Christian win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Abilene Christian -5.6 · market Abilene Christian -3.5 · difference +2.1 pts (Abilene Christian view)
- Total
- model 55.0 · market 48.5 · difference +6.5
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Abilene Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mercer 24.7, Abilene Christian 30.3 | Abilene Christian 64%wrong winner | 22.6 | 4.0 |
| New formula | Mercer 24.3, Abilene Christian 30.0 | Abilene Christian 65%wrong winner | 22.7 | 3.3 |
Final: Mercer 34, Abilene Christian 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mercer vs Abilene Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mercer | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.2 | 29.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 7.32 | 6.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.9 | 181.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 353.3 | 227.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.3 | 148.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.7 | 241.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 1.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.42 | 2.07 |
| Stat | Mercer | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 44.9% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.2% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Havoc rate | 15.9% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.31 | 3.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.8 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Mercer | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | 0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 42.8% |
| Passing success rate | 50.3% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 16.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.2% | 43.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3% | 40.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.4% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 64.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mercer schedule · Abilene Christian schedule · all Week 4 projections
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