Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Tennessee State 35.5, Campbell 25.7 at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: East Tennessee State wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 61.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Campbell has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. East Tennessee State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Campbell by 13 and East Tennessee State by 32 about 80% of the time.
East Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Tennessee State by about 7.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Campbell 49, East Tennessee State 37. Campbell won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Campbell / East Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Tennessee State -7 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +207 / -267 |
| DraftKings | East Tennessee State -7 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +207 / -267 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Tennessee State -10 | 61.1 | 74% |
| Market consensus | East Tennessee State -7 | 56.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | East Tennessee State -7.5 | 57.1 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Tennessee State win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model East Tennessee State -9.8 · market East Tennessee State -7 · difference +2.8 pts (East Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 61.1 · market 56.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward East Tennessee State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Campbell 25.7, East Tennessee State 35.5 | East Tennessee State 74%wrong winner | 21.8 | 24.9 |
| New formula | Campbell 18.2, East Tennessee State 40.9 | East Tennessee State 91%wrong winner | 34.7 | 26.9 |
Final: Campbell 49, East Tennessee State 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Campbell vs East Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Campbell | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.7 | 32.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.8 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.29 | 6.18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.47 | 5.62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.8 | 212.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 211.0 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.3 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 272.0 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Campbell | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 40.7% | 43.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 9.9% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.54 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67 | 3.96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 73.4 |
| Stat | Campbell | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1% | 46.3% |
| Passing success rate | 41.5% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3% | 15.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8% | 30.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.5% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3% | 38.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.2% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.8% | 61.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Campbell schedule · East Tennessee State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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