Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Carolina 40.9, East Tennessee State 12.3 at Kenan Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: North Carolina wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.6 points and 53.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
East Tennessee State is 1-1, scoring 42.5 and allowing 31.5 points per game (+11 per game). North Carolina is 1-0, scoring 15 and allowing 10 points per game (+5 per game).
East Tennessee State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why North Carolina's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 6 and North Carolina by 51 about 80% of the time.
North Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Carolina by about 26.5. The game is on ACCNX.
Result: East Tennessee State 3, North Carolina 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 15.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Tennessee State / North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Carolina -35 → North Carolina -36 | 54.25 → 55.25 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | North Carolina -35.5 | 54 → 55 | — / — |
| DraftKings | North Carolina -34.5 → North Carolina -36.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Carolina -28.5 | 53.2 | 97% |
| Market consensus | North Carolina -36 | 55.3 | 98% |
| Blended projection | North Carolina -35 | 55.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Carolina win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model North Carolina -28.6 · market North Carolina -36 · difference -7.4 pts (North Carolina view)
- Total
- model 53.2 · market 55.25 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 7.4 pts more toward East Tennessee State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Tennessee State 12.3, North Carolina 40.9 | North Carolina 97%right winner | 3.4 | 15.2 |
| New formula | East Tennessee State 14.8, North Carolina 40.5 | North Carolina 94%right winner | 6.3 | 17.3 |
Final: East Tennessee State 3, North Carolina 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Tennessee State vs North Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Tennessee State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.5 | 19.3#120 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 24.5#65 |
| Yards per play | 6.18 | 5.16#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62 | 5.11#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 212.1 | 115.3#129 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.6 | 184.6#107 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 141.7#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.3 | 203.1#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.17#93 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.83#99 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.67#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.83#75 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.03#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.01#55 |
| Success rate | 43.6% | 38.3%#115 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 40.8%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 9.5%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 9.9%#18 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.7%#93 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8% | 12.9%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 3.71#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96 | 3.94#75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 30#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 29#53 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.4 | 58.1#134 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.06#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.01#84 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.04#96 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.06#38 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3% | 36.9%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 38.2%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2% | 17.9%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3% | 27.3%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 27.5%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 39.6%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4% | 42.9%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.1% | 48.9%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.4% | 53.8%#26 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Tennessee State schedule · North Carolina schedule · all Week 2 projections
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