Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Kentucky 26.1, Chattanooga 23.1 at Roy Kidd Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Eastern Kentucky wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Chattanooga is 1-1, scoring 16.5 and allowing 17 points per game (-0.5 per game). Eastern Kentucky is 0-2, scoring 14 and allowing 47 points per game (-33 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chattanooga by 20 and Eastern Kentucky by 26 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Kentucky by about 0.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chattanooga 17, Eastern Kentucky 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2 points and the total by 10.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chattanooga / Eastern Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Chattanooga -3 | 48.5 | -169 / +135 |
| DraftKings | Chattanooga -3 | 48.5 | -169 / +135 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Kentucky -3 | 49.2 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Chattanooga -3 | 48.5 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Chattanooga -2 | 49.5 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Kentucky win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Kentucky -3 · market Chattanooga -3 · difference +6.0 pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 48.5 · difference +0.7
Model margin is 6.0 pts more toward Eastern Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chattanooga 23.1, Eastern Kentucky 26.1 | Eastern Kentucky 58%right winner | 2.0 | 10.2 |
| New formula | Chattanooga 22.2, Eastern Kentucky 26.6 | Eastern Kentucky 61%right winner | 0.6 | 9.7 |
Final: Chattanooga 17, Eastern Kentucky 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Chattanooga vs Eastern Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Chattanooga | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 19.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 4.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45 | 5.53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.5 | 164.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.7 | 120.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.8 | 184.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 221.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 3.17 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 36.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 40.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 61.0 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | Eastern Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 33.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.2% | 36.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 27.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4% | 32.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 33.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 41.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.5% | 70.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5% | 51.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Chattanooga schedule · Eastern Kentucky schedule · all Week 2 projections
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