Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Carolina 28.1, Chattanooga 23.9 at E.J. Whitmire Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Western Carolina wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 52 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Chattanooga is 4-3, scoring 20 and allowing 12.6 points per game (+7.4 per game). Western Carolina is 3-4, scoring 31.6 and allowing 31.4 points per game (+0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chattanooga by 18 and Western Carolina by 27 about 80% of the time.
Western Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Carolina by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chattanooga 41, Western Carolina 18. Chattanooga won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 27.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chattanooga 23.9, Western Carolina 28.1 | Western Carolina 61%wrong winner | 27.2 | 7.0 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Chattanooga 41, Western Carolina 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Chattanooga vs Western Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Chattanooga | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 38.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 33.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 6.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45 | 6.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.5 | 154.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.7 | 326.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.8 | 207.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 279.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.55 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 1.91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 45.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 40.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 3.57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 2.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 75.1 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 43.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.2% | 47.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 31.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4% | 35.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 46.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 39.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.5% | 55.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5% | 35.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Chattanooga schedule · Western Carolina schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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