Matchup analysis
Our model projects The Citadel 22, Furman 22 at Johnson Hagood Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: The Citadel wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 44.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Furman is 2-6 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 21.3 points per game (-6.2 per game). The Citadel is 2-6 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.5 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-15.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Furman by 22 and The Citadel by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Citadel gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Furman would be favoured by 1.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Furman vs The Citadel: stat comparison
| Stat | Furman | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1 | 18.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 33.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.71 | 5.08 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 6.27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.9 | 208.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.4 | 101.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 145.9 | 187.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.8 | 185.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.63 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Furman | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 38.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.9% | 47.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 16.1% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.84 | 2.13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.83 | 3.01 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.9 | 61.0 |
| Stat | Furman | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14 | +0.16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.5% | 38.5% |
| Passing success rate | 36.0% | 34.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 28.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.2% | 38.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.2% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 28.7% | 36.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.7% | 44.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Furman schedule · The Citadel schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.