Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected The Citadel 24.2, Charleston Southern 20 at Johnson Hagood Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: The Citadel wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Charleston Southern is 0-2, scoring 8.5 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-17 per game). The Citadel is 1-1, scoring 28.5 and allowing 41.5 points per game (-13 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Charleston Southern by 18 and The Citadel by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Citadel gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour The Citadel by about 2.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charleston Southern 26, The Citadel 20. Charleston Southern won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charleston Southern / The Citadel) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Charleston Southern -1.5 → The Citadel -3 | 45.5 | +125 / -156 |
| DraftKings | Charleston Southern -1.5 → The Citadel -3 | 45.5 | +125 / -156 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | The Citadel win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | The Citadel -4 | 44.1 | 61% |
| Market consensus | The Citadel -3 | 45.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | The Citadel -3 | 46.6 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- The Citadel win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model The Citadel -4.2 · market The Citadel -3 · difference +1.2 pts (The Citadel view)
- Total
- model 44.1 · market 45.5 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward The Citadel than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charleston Southern 20.0, The Citadel 24.2 | The Citadel 61%wrong winner | 10.2 | 1.9 |
| New formula | Charleston Southern 18.7, The Citadel 29.0 | The Citadel 74%wrong winner | 16.4 | 1.7 |
Final: Charleston Southern 26, The Citadel 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charleston Southern vs The Citadel: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Charleston Southern | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.44 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98 | 6.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.9 | 210.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.9 | 116.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4 | 167.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.4 | 271.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 0.60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 0.40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 38.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.89 | 2.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.13 | 4.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.2 | 58.9 |
| Stat | Charleston Southern | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.25 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.7% | 37.9% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 39.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.7% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3% | 34.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.1% | 67.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charleston Southern schedule · The Citadel schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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