Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wofford 24.2, The Citadel 17.5 at Gibbs Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Wofford wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 41.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
The Citadel has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Wofford has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between The Citadel by 16 and Wofford by 29 about 80% of the time.
Wofford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wofford by about 4.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: The Citadel 14, Wofford 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.3 points and the total by 14.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (The Citadel / Wofford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wofford -8.5 → Wofford -7.5 | 45.5 | +305 / -415 |
| DraftKings | Wofford -8.5 → Wofford -7.5 | 45.5 | +305 / -415 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wofford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wofford -6.5 | 41.6 | 67% |
| Market consensus | Wofford -7.5 | 45.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Wofford -7.5 | 46.4 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wofford win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Wofford -6.7 · market Wofford -7.5 · difference -0.8 pts (Wofford view)
- Total
- model 41.6 · market 45.5 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward The Citadel than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | The Citadel 17.5, Wofford 24.2 | Wofford 67%right winner | 21.3 | 14.4 |
| New formula | The Citadel 17.2, Wofford 27.1 | Wofford 72%right winner | 18.0 | 11.7 |
Final: The Citadel 14, Wofford 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
The Citadel vs Wofford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | The Citadel | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 17.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 5.11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78 | 5.33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.8 | 139.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5 | 168.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.4 | 134.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.5 | 265.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 2.64 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 38.8% | 35.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 16.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.26 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18 | 3.95 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.9 | 60.3 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9% | 38.2% |
| Passing success rate | 39.3% | 32.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.0% | 55.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · Wofford schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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