Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 34.3, The Citadel 21 at Johnson Hagood Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Tennessee Tech wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.3 points and 55.2 combined points.
Tennessee Tech is 6-1, scoring 34 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Citadel is 2-5, scoring 19.3 and allowing 34.6 points per game (-15.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee Tech by 36 and The Citadel by 9 about 80% of the time.
The Citadel gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tennessee Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tennessee Tech 28, The Citadel 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 14.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee Tech 34.3, The Citadel 21.0 | Tennessee Tech 81%right winner | 1.7 | 14.2 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Tennessee Tech 28, The Citadel 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee Tech vs The Citadel: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.5 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.79 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.71 | 6.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.7 | 210.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.3 | 116.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.3 | 167.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.3 | 271.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 0.40 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 38.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.85 | 2.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14 | 4.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2 | 58.9 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.25 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9% | 37.9% |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 39.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.1% | 34.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.2% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9% | 67.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee Tech schedule · The Citadel schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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