Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Carolina 35, The Citadel 24 at E.J. Whitmire Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Western Carolina wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.9 points and 58.7 combined points.
The Citadel is 2-6 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.5 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-15.3 per game). Western Carolina is 3-5 against the 27th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 32.6 points per game (-2.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between The Citadel by 12 and Western Carolina by 33 about 80% of the time.
Western Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Carolina by about 8.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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The Citadel vs Western Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | The Citadel | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.5 | 29.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8 | 32.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.08 | 5.75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.27 | 6.77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.8 | 167.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 101.0 | 253.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 209.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.5 | 253.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 38.5% | 41.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.2% | 45.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 14.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 15.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.13 | 3.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.01 | 4.07 |
| Average starting field position | opp 17 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 17 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 73.1 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.5% | 39.4% |
| Passing success rate | 34.5% | 42.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.6% | 32.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 33.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.2% | 42.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2% | 44.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.5% | 52.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 44.1% | 55.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · Western Carolina schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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