Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas A&M 46.2, The Citadel 5.2 at Kyle Field in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Texas A&M wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 41 points and 51.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
The Citadel is 2-4, scoring 22.5 and allowing 33.5 points per game (-11 per game). Texas A&M is 3-3, scoring 27.5 and allowing 20 points per game (+7.5 per game).
The Citadel plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Texas A&M's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas A&M by 18 and Texas A&M by 64 about 80% of the time.
Texas A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas A&M by about 38.9. The game is on SECN+.
Result: The Citadel 0, Texas A&M 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 10.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (The Citadel / Texas A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas A&M -45.5 → Texas A&M -46.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Texas A&M -45.5 → Texas A&M -46.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas A&M -41 | 51.4 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Texas A&M -46.5 | 56.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Texas A&M -46 | 56.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas A&M win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Texas A&M -41 · market Texas A&M -46.5 · difference -5.5 pts (Texas A&M view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 56.5 · difference -5.1
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward The Citadel than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | The Citadel 5.2, Texas A&M 46.2 | Texas A&M 100%right winner | 0.0 | 10.4 |
| New formula | The Citadel 4.2, Texas A&M 47.3 | Texas A&M 100%right winner | 2.2 | 10.5 |
Final: The Citadel 0, Texas A&M 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
The Citadel vs Texas A&M: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | The Citadel | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 27.5#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.5 | 20.0#42 |
| Yards per play | 5.44 | 4.88#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 6.24#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 224.2 | 161.3#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 123.3 | 177.7#113 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 182.0 | 144.8#57 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.7 | 206.8#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 | 1.33#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 1.00#50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17 | 0.83#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 1.83#78 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.03#120 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.01#43 |
| Success rate | 41.4% | 40.8%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% | 39.8%#54 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 10.3%#118 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 16.5%#135 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 12.7%#97 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 13.6%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33 | 4.23#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47 | 3.68#59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | own 34#11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | own 28#50 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8 | 69.5#29 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.06#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.11#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.02#44 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6% | 44.7%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9% | 37.4%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 15.7%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7% | 30.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3% | 26.8%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 40.7%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.1% | 31.4%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.4% | 61.5%#76 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.4% | 57.1%#62 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · Texas A&M schedule · all Week 7 projections
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