Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 40.8, The Citadel 16.2 at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: South Carolina State wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.6 points and 57 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
The Citadel is 1-3, scoring 21.3 and allowing 34 points per game (-12.7 per game). South Carolina State is 5-0, scoring 47 and allowing 10.2 points per game (+36.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 2 and South Carolina State by 47 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina State by about 22.5.
Result: The Citadel 34, South Carolina State 31. The Citadel won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 27.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (The Citadel / South Carolina State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina State -20.5 → South Carolina State -17.5 | 47.5 → 48.5 | +574 / -950 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina State -20.5 → South Carolina State -17.5 | 47.5 → 48.5 | +574 / -950 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina State -24.5 | 57.0 | 95% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina State -17.5 | 48.5 | 86% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina State -19 | 49.9 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina State win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina State -24.6 · market South Carolina State -17.5 · difference +7.1 pts (South Carolina State view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 48.5 · difference +8.5
Model margin is 7.1 pts more toward South Carolina State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | The Citadel 16.2, South Carolina State 40.8 | South Carolina State 95%wrong winner | 27.6 | 8.0 |
| New formula | The Citadel 14.8, South Carolina State 41.2 | South Carolina State 96%wrong winner | 29.4 | 9.0 |
Final: The Citadel 34, South Carolina State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
The Citadel vs South Carolina State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | The Citadel | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 27.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 5.91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.8 | 147.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5 | 273.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.4 | 153.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.5 | 212.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40 | 1.31 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 2.77 |
| Stat | The Citadel | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 38.8% | 43.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 38.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.26 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18 | 3.43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.9 | 71.3 |
| Stat | The Citadel | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9% | 44.3% |
| Passing success rate | 39.3% | 43.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 34.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 27.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6% | 48.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.9% | 58.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.0% | 46.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · South Carolina State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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