Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 45.7, Charlotte 18.9 at DATCU Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: North Texas wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.8 points and 64.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Charlotte is 0-5, scoring 17.2 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-23.4 per game). North Texas is 3-2, scoring 40.6 and allowing 33 points per game (+7.6 per game).
Charlotte's struggling offense (136th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 14.9 points against an average defense) meets North Texas's struggling defense (122nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Charlotte puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: North Texas's strong offense (19th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (138th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 4 and North Texas by 49 about 80% of the time.
North Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Texas by about 24.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charlotte 10, North Texas 50. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.2 points and the total by 4.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charlotte / North Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Texas -27.75 | 58.5 → 58.25 | +1500 / -4750 |
| Bovada | North Texas -27 → North Texas -28 | 59.5 → 58 | +1300 / -5000 |
| DraftKings | North Texas -28.5 → North Texas -27.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -27 | 64.6 | 96% |
| Market consensus | North Texas -28 | 58.3 | 94% |
| Blended projection | North Texas -28 | 58.8 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Texas win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -26.8 · market North Texas -27.75 · difference -0.9 pts (North Texas view)
- Total
- model 64.6 · market 58.25 · difference +6.3
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charlotte 18.9, North Texas 45.7 | North Texas 96%right winner | 13.2 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Charlotte 19.6, North Texas 46.6 | North Texas 96%right winner | 12.9 | 6.2 |
Final: Charlotte 10, North Texas 50. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charlotte vs North Texas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Charlotte | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.2#132 | 40.6#18 |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6#136 | 33.0#126 |
| Yards per play | 5.58#108 | 7.32#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.04#104 | 5.96#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.0#129 | 188.6#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.8#103 | 349.0#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 192.0#116 | 172.4#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.0#111 | 218.6#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.80#135 | 1.00#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#121 | 0.80#91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#89 | 1.60#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#39 | 0.80#16 |
| Stat | Charlotte | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#133 | +0.30#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#114 | +0.15#117 |
| Success rate | 35.7%#130 | 48.6%#21 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.9%#133 | 45.2%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#82 | 17.4%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#70 | 11.8%#77 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#110 | 11.8%#114 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7%#118 | 9.5%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.17#124 | 4.79#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.11#133 | 4.72#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#101 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#136 | own 36#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.8#136 | 73.4#9 |
| Stat | Charlotte | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#109 | +0.07#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17#129 | +0.50#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.04#76 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.28#127 | +0.28#128 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.8%#125 | 40.4%#102 |
| Passing success rate | 35.7%#123 | 55.6%#7 |
| Run stuff rate | 26.7%#137 | 17.6%#83 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.2%#135 | 37.1%#22 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 43.7%#137 | 32.9%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.0%#132 | 53.6%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.8%#126 | 38.2%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#104 | 77.8%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 82.6%#130 | 68.2%#105 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charlotte schedule · North Texas schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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