Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulane 29.2, South Alabama 18.7 at Yulman Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Tulane wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.5 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
South Alabama is 1-0, scoring 39 and allowing 14 points per game (+25 per game). Tulane is 0-1, scoring 3 and allowing 17 points per game (-14 per game).
Expect South Alabama to find it hard going: Tulane's strong defense (32nd) outranks South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). Tulane's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense) meets South Alabama's below-average defense (106th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulane puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Alabama by 12 and Tulane by 33 about 80% of the time.
Tulane gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulane by about 8.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Alabama 24, Tulane 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Alabama / Tulane) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulane -10 → Tulane -9.5 | 53 → 48 | +300 / -390 |
| Bovada | Tulane -10 → Tulane -9.5 | 50.5 → 47.5 | +315 / -420 |
| DraftKings | Tulane -10 → Tulane -9.5 | 55.5 → 48.5 | +285 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulane win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulane -10.5 | 47.9 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Tulane -9.5 | 48.0 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Tulane -9.5 | 49.0 | 75% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulane win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Tulane -10.5 · market Tulane -9.5 · difference +1.0 pts (Tulane view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 48 · difference -0.1
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Alabama 18.7, Tulane 29.2 | Tulane 75%right winner | 6.5 | 4.1 |
| New formula | South Alabama 17.9, Tulane 31.9 | Tulane 80%right winner | 9.9 | 2.2 |
Final: South Alabama 24, Tulane 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Alabama vs Tulane: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Alabama | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5#76 | 27.7#68 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.4#110 | 23.9#58 |
| Yards per play | 5.54#98 | 6.27#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.85#72 | 5.81#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.9#20 | 170.6#67 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.8#110 | 246.9#50 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7#91 | 143.9#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.2#45 | 254.7#123 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#32 | 1.07#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#101 | 1.71#7 |
| Sacks per game | 0.83#136 | 2.57#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#38 | 0.86#8 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#36 | +0.06#46 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#101 | +0.03#87 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#72 | 45.2%#38 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0%#74 | 44.9%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3%#124 | 13.2%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#83 | 10.9%#35 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#96 | 12.4%#70 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#9 | 10.0%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.08#52 | 3.94#73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12#99 | 3.81#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#58 | own 35#3 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#92 | own 27#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.7#22 | 66.6#61 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#30 | -0.03#98 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#51 | +0.17#21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#77 | +0.03#90 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#105 | +0.04#80 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#66 | 43.2%#68 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#92 | 47.4%#16 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#23 | 17.7%#57 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#97 | 33.7%#28 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0%#45 | 32.0%#99 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#45 | 43.4%#43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.1%#62 | 40.8%#73 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.7%#44 | 58.5%#86 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.8%#122 | 62.0%#81 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Alabama schedule · Tulane schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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