Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Army 25, Tulane 20.3 at Michie Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Army wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Tulane is 2-2, scoring 18.8 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-4.5 per game). Army is 2-2, scoring 33.3 and allowing 19.8 points per game (+13.5 per game).
Expect Tulane to find it hard going: Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) outranks Tulane's below-average offense (106th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) should limit Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 18 and Army by 27 about 80% of the time.
Army gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Army by about 2.6. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Tulane 17, Army 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 8.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulane / Army) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -3 → Army -5.5 | 47 → 48.5 | +152.5 / -182.5 |
| Bovada | Army -3 → Army -5.5 | 45.5 → 48.5 | +135 / -160 |
| DraftKings | Army -3 → Army -5.5 | 48.5 | +170 / -205 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Army win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Army -4.5 | 45.3 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Army -5.5 | 48.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Army -5.5 | 49.2 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Army win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Army -4.7 · market Army -5.5 · difference -0.8 pts (Army view)
- Total
- model 45.3 · market 48.5 · difference -3.2
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulane 20.3, Army 25.0 | Army 62%right winner | 1.7 | 8.3 |
| New formula | Tulane 20.6, Army 25.3 | Army 62%right winner | 1.7 | 8.9 |
Final: Tulane 17, Army 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulane vs Army: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8#123 | 33.3#57 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3#69 | 19.8#46 |
| Yards per play | 5.85#89 | 6.39#56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14#107 | 6.94#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.3#61 | 325.5#1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 170.0#117 | 96.0#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.0#124 | 170.3#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.0#90 | 204.5#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#40 | 0.50#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#138 | 0.00#137 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25#118 | 0.75#134 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#127 | 0.50#7 |
| Stat | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#112 | +0.26#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#118 | +0.27#137 |
| Success rate | 33.8%#136 | 51.5%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#65 | 47.2%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#89 | 14.5%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#107 | 16.4%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 10.9%#127 | 12.8%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.9%#134 | 9.8%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.94#130 | 4.92#16 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58#50 | 3.13#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#137 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#49 | own 23#4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0#117 | 66.0#66 |
| Stat | Tulane | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#46 | +0.27#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13#124 | +0.23#35 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#90 | +0.18#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25#121 | +0.36#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.0%#115 | 53.0%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 29.4%#134 | 46.2%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5%#124 | 12.0%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7%#126 | 33.9%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4%#99 | 38.2%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8%#99 | 52.2%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.6%#129 | 36.4%#52 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#80 | 68.8%#46 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#64 | 50.0%#38 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · Army schedule · all Week 6 projections
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