Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 26.7, Tulane 22.5 at Yulman Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Memphis wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Memphis is 5-1, scoring 38.5 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+17.7 per game). Tulane is 2-3, scoring 18.4 and allowing 22.6 points per game (-4.2 per game).
Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.4 points against an average defense) meets Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Memphis puts up. Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th) should limit Tulane's below-average offense (108th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 27 and Tulane by 18 about 80% of the time.
Tulane gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Memphis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Memphis 17, Tulane 31. Tulane won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Memphis / Tulane) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -7 → Memphis -6.5 | 53.5 → 55.75 | -264 / +215 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -7 → Memphis -6.5 | 53.5 → 55.5 | -258 / +210 |
| Bovada | Memphis -7 → Memphis -6.5 | 53.5 → 56 | -270 / +220 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulane win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -4 | 49.1 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -6.5 | 55.8 | 30% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -6 | 55.7 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulane win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 30% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -4.2 · market Memphis -6.5 · difference +2.3 pts (Tulane view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 55.75 · difference -6.6
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Memphis 26.7, Tulane 22.5 | Memphis 61%wrong winner | 18.2 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Memphis 26.2, Tulane 22.5 | Memphis 60%wrong winner | 17.7 | 0.7 |
Final: Memphis 17, Tulane 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Memphis vs Tulane: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Memphis | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.5#23 | 18.4#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8#48 | 22.6#64 |
| Yards per play | 7.77#5 | 5.76#92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32#113 | 6.00#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 256.8#7 | 170.2#68 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.7#34 | 165.0#122 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.3#119 | 224.4#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.5#67 | 182.2#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#67 | 0.60#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#42 | 0.00#138 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#34 | 1.00#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#46 | 2.60#116 |
| Stat | Memphis | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#20 | -0.00#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#77 | +0.15#118 |
| Success rate | 48.3%#28 | 33.3%#135 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2%#48 | 41.9%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.8%#12 | 12.0%#95 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#119 | 12.1%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#71 | 10.6%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#44 | 17.2%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.73#26 | 3.05#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#31 | 3.54#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#133 | own 27#127 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#33 | own 27#38 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8#53 | 58.2#128 |
| Stat | Memphis | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#30 | +0.11#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#23 | -0.11#123 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#125 | +0.10#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#34 | +0.23#118 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.0%#17 | 35.9%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 51.6%#19 | 30.8%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#20 | 18.6%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.5%#42 | 27.2%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.4%#38 | 32.8%#103 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#19 | 38.8%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#38 | 49.4%#132 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5%#100 | 60.0%#90 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.5%#87 | 52.6%#49 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Memphis schedule · Tulane schedule · all Week 7 projections
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