Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Texas 32, Tulane 27 at Yulman Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: North Texas wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 58.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Texas is 5-2 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43.1 and allowing 30.6 points per game (+12.5 per game). Tulane is 3-4 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game).
North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th); that mismatch is where most of North Texas's projected points come from. Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense) meets North Texas's below-average defense (116th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulane puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 27 and Tulane by 18 about 80% of the time.
Tulane gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Texas vs Tulane: stat comparison
| Stat | North Texas | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.1#2 | 20.3#120 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6#116 | 24.6#74 |
| Yards per play | 7.66#4 | 5.87#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.11#102 | 6.21#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 189.9#45 | 162.0#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 345.1#3 | 184.6#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.1#111 | 223.3#132 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.7#75 | 209.0#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#65 | 0.86#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#78 | 0.86#82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#86 | 1.86#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#13 | 2.43#112 |
| Stat | North Texas | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.33#1 | +0.01#110 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16#121 | +0.09#100 |
| Success rate | 50.6%#8 | 32.5%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#113 | 43.3%#97 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.7%#3 | 11.7%#96 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#106 | 12.8%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#120 | 12.6%#106 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.9%#11 | 15.9%#125 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.81#21 | 2.97#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.43#116 | 3.36#27 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#60 | own 27#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#128 | own 29#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#26 | 59.0#126 |
| Stat | North Texas | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#45 | +0.08#68 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.51#1 | -0.05#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#86 | +0.13#119 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#132 | +0.04#68 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.2%#82 | 31.5%#138 |
| Passing success rate | 56.8%#2 | 33.5%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#77 | 19.8%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1%#28 | 23.9%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#83 | 33.1%#113 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#19 | 37.8%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%#56 | 51.0%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.4%#15 | 46.7%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.8%#116 | 53.1%#40 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · Tulane schedule · all Week 12 projections
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