Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tulane 25, Tulsa 23 at Yulman Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Tulane wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Tulsa is 4-4 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.8 and allowing 24.4 points per game (+5.4 per game). Tulane is 3-4 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game).
Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) should limit Tulsa's below-average offense (88th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense). Expect Tulane to find it hard going: Tulsa's below-average defense (94th) outranks Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 20 and Tulane by 25 about 80% of the time.
Tulane gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulane by about 0.3. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tulsa vs Tulane: stat comparison
| Stat | Tulsa | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.8#63 | 20.3#120 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4#71 | 24.6#74 |
| Yards per play | 5.74#93 | 5.87#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71#78 | 6.21#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.0#67 | 162.0#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8#93 | 184.6#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 214.8#129 | 223.3#132 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.8#50 | 209.0#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#13 | 0.86#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#28 | 0.86#82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13#65 | 1.86#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#39 | 2.43#112 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#44 | +0.01#110 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#57 | +0.09#100 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#106 | 32.5%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#46 | 43.3%#97 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#111 | 11.7%#96 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#39 | 12.8%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 10.7%#132 | 12.6%#106 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#83 | 15.9%#125 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.41#42 | 2.97#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.24#22 | 3.36#27 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#44 | own 27#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#65 | own 29#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#81 | 59.0#126 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#14 | +0.08#68 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#70 | -0.05#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#66 | +0.13#119 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#50 | +0.04#68 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4%#96 | 31.5%#138 |
| Passing success rate | 38.7%#102 | 33.5%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.4%#26 | 19.8%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4%#128 | 23.9%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#106 | 33.1%#113 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#124 | 37.8%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.4%#98 | 51.0%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.8%#25 | 46.7%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.5%#36 | 53.1%#40 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · Tulane schedule · all Week 10 projections
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