Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 29.1, Tulane 20.6 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Kansas State wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.5 points and 49.7 combined points.
Tulane is 1-1, scoring 15.5 and allowing 20.5 points per game (-5 per game). Kansas State is 2-0, scoring 52.5 and allowing 5 points per game (+47.5 per game).
Expect Tulane to find it hard going: Kansas State's strong defense (36th) outranks Tulane's below-average offense (104th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense). Kansas State's strong offense (20th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd); that mismatch is where most of Kansas State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 14 and Kansas State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas State by about 6.4. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Tulane 20, Kansas State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulane / Kansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -20 → Kansas State -20.5 | 49.5 | +787.5 / -1375 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -20.5 | 49.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -19.5 → Kansas State -20.5 | 49.5 | +725 / -1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -8.5 | 49.7 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -20.5 | 49.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -18.5 | 50.4 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas State win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -8.5 · market Kansas State -20.5 · difference -12.0 pts (Kansas State view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 49.5 · difference +0.2
Model margin is 12.0 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulane 20.6, Kansas State 29.1 | Kansas State 71%right winner | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| New formula | Tulane 16.5, Kansas State 35.2 | Kansas State 88%right winner | 7.6 | 0.7 |
Final: Tulane 20, Kansas State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulane vs Kansas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tulane | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.5#132 | 52.5#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#69 | 5.0#3 |
| Yards per play | 6.58#56 | 7.95#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#104 | 2.81#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.5#100 | 308.5#7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.0#92 | 260.0#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 218.0#128 | 112.5#51 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.0#82 | 35.0#1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#67 | 1.00#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#136 | 0.50#92 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#134 | 2.50#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#78 | 0.00#2 |
| Stat | Tulane | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#88 | +0.11#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#104 | -0.07#32 |
| Success rate | 32.4%#135 | 44.2%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.4%#48 | 37.1%#38 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#97 | 12.9%#71 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#94 | 11.1%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 9.6%#131 | 14.0%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.1%#130 | 13.3%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.00#128 | 4.42#54 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.83#12 | 3.73#66 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#117 | own 34#37 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#70 | own 27#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 52.5#132 | 71.5#31 |
| Stat | Tulane | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.09#59 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#74 | +0.13#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#96 | -0.06#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#109 | -0.08#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.0%#132 | 54.7%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 34.5%#118 | 50.0%#39 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.0%#128 | 15.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 15.4%#135 | 35.8%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8%#103 | 27.5%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6%#106 | 70.4%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.5%#128 | 21.4%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#31 | 68.1%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#46 | 50.9%#52 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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