Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulsa 25.1, Rice 23.6 at First Community Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Tulsa wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 48.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Tulsa is 3-3, scoring 27.5 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+4.2 per game). Rice is 1-5, scoring 17 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-10.5 per game).
Tulsa's below-average offense (96th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense) meets Rice's below-average defense (98th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up. Tulsa's below-average defense (95th) should limit Rice's struggling offense (125th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 24 and Rice by 21 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tulsa is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tulsa 38, Rice 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.5 points and the total by 6.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulsa / Rice) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulsa -3.5 → Tulsa -4 | 46.25 → 47 | -191.5 / +162 |
| DraftKings | Tulsa -3 → Tulsa -3.5 | 46.5 → 47.5 | -198 / +164 |
| Bovada | Tulsa -4 → Tulsa -4.5 | 46 → 46.5 | -185 / +160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rice win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulsa -1.5 | 48.6 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Tulsa -4 | 47.0 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Tulsa -3.5 | 48.1 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rice win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Tulsa -1.5 · market Tulsa -4 · difference +2.5 pts (Rice view)
- Total
- model 48.6 · market 47 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Rice than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulsa 25.1, Rice 23.6 | Tulsa 54%right winner | 19.5 | 6.4 |
| New formula | Tulsa 26.1, Rice 22.1 | Tulsa 60%right winner | 17.0 | 6.8 |
Final: Tulsa 38, Rice 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulsa vs Rice: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tulsa | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5#80 | 17.0#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3#67 | 27.5#100 |
| Yards per play | 5.40#114 | 5.10#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#73 | 5.62#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.3#69 | 239.0#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 188.0#103 | 71.3#138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 190.5#114 | 198.3#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.2#107 | 175.2#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#16 | 0.50#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#14 | 0.33#131 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#52 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#42 | 1.67#70 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#81 | +0.03#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#63 | +0.04#68 |
| Success rate | 37.7%#123 | 39.8%#112 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#67 | 39.9%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.8%#126 | 9.5%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#66 | 14.2%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0%#123 | 12.1%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#90 | 13.4%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#62 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#37 | 3.79#68 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#53 | own 26#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#75 | own 35#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#64 | 60.8#113 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#21 | +0.11#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#112 | -0.20#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#57 | +0.09#99 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#79 | -0.03#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0%#104 | 44.2%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 35.5%#122 | 27.3%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.4%#14 | 17.8%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 19.7%#137 | 23.0%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.0%#114 | 29.8%#78 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.1%#134 | 31.6%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#106 | 41.7%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.2%#21 | 50.0%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#34 | 54.2%#51 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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