Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Carolina 29.5, Rice 17.2 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: East Carolina wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and 46.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Rice is 1-4, scoring 18 and allowing 27.4 points per game (-9.4 per game). East Carolina is 2-2, scoring 24 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-1.3 per game).
Expect Rice to find it hard going: East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) outranks Rice's struggling offense (124th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense). East Carolina's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rice's below-average defense (102nd); that mismatch is where most of East Carolina's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rice by 10 and East Carolina by 35 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Carolina by about 10.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Rice 12, East Carolina 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 6.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rice / East Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Carolina -10 | 48.75 → 46.25 | +302.5 / -395 |
| Bovada | East Carolina -10 | 50 → 46 | +305 / -410 |
| DraftKings | East Carolina -10 | 47.5 → 46.5 | +300 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Carolina -12.5 | 46.6 | 79% |
| Market consensus | East Carolina -10 | 46.3 | 76% |
| Blended projection | East Carolina -10.5 | 47.4 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Carolina win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model East Carolina -12.3 · market East Carolina -10 · difference +2.3 pts (East Carolina view)
- Total
- model 46.6 · market 46.25 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward East Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rice 17.2, East Carolina 29.5 | East Carolina 79%right winner | 3.7 | 6.6 |
| New formula | Rice 16.1, East Carolina 29.5 | East Carolina 81%right winner | 2.6 | 5.6 |
Final: Rice 12, East Carolina 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rice vs East Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.0#126 | 24.0#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#105 | 25.3#86 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#114 | 5.88#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.76#86 | 5.18#44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 249.8#12 | 136.0#113 |
| Net passing yards per game | 76.4#138 | 210.8#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.8#111 | 160.0#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.2#49 | 203.8#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#24 | 1.25#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#122 | 1.25#30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#111 | 2.75#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#54 | 2.25#100 |
| Stat | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#68 | +0.03#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#87 | -0.12#10 |
| Success rate | 42.9%#74 | 41.8%#89 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1%#90 | 34.8%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#125 | 11.9%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#124 | 13.6%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#107 | 15.8%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#21 | 14.4%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.62#111 | 3.40#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#89 | 3.75#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#129 | own 27#123 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#130 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2#116 | 59.0#121 |
| Stat | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#34 | +0.03#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#118 | +0.03#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#107 | -0.07#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#70 | -0.19#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#45 | 39.6%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 29.6%#133 | 43.9%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8%#43 | 18.6%#92 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3%#118 | 19.6%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5%#92 | 32.6%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4%#115 | 27.7%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#113 | 40.3%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#91 | 37.5%#134 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#73 | 66.7%#100 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rice schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 6 projections
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