Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Fresno State 31.4, Rice 13.3 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Fresno State wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.1 points and 44.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Rice is 1-2, scoring 17.3 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-10.4 per game). Fresno State is 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Fresno State's strong defense (34th) should limit Rice's struggling offense (135th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.6 points against an average defense). Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense) meets Rice's below-average defense (106th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Fresno State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rice by 4 and Fresno State by 41 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Fresno State by about 16. The game is on CW.
Result: Rice 24, Fresno State 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 17.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rice / Fresno State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Fresno State -13.75 → Fresno State -12.25 | 44 → 43.5 | +405 / -542.5 |
| DraftKings | Fresno State -13.5 → Fresno State -12.5 | 43.5 | +380 / -500 |
| Bovada | Fresno State -14 → Fresno State -12 | 44.5 → 43.5 | +430 / -585 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fresno State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Fresno State -18 | 44.6 | 88% |
| Market consensus | Fresno State -12.5 | 43.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Fresno State -13.5 | 44.9 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fresno State win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Fresno State -18.1 · market Fresno State -12.25 · difference +5.9 pts (Fresno State view)
- Total
- model 44.6 · market 43.5 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rice 13.3, Fresno State 31.4 | Fresno State 88%right winner | 4.1 | 17.4 |
| New formula | Rice 13.1, Fresno State 30.4 | Fresno State 87%right winner | 3.3 | 18.5 |
Final: Rice 24, Fresno State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rice vs Fresno State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Rice | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.3#126 | 25.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#106 | 17.3#44 |
| Yards per play | 5.12#121 | 5.99#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#99 | 5.90#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 242.7#21 | 143.0#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 67.7#137 | 200.7#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.7#100 | 126.7#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.3#61 | 272.3#126 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#9 | 0.67#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#121 | 2.33#5 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#81 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#20 | 1.33#70 |
| Stat | Rice | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#74 | +0.05#87 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#84 | -0.01#52 |
| Success rate | 42.9%#78 | 38.8%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#105 | 40.6%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#114 | 13.2%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#97 | 11.6%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 10.5%#125 | 15.9%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 6.5%#2 | 13.4%#79 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.00#88 | 3.42#123 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47#110 | 3.20#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#116 | own 33#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#116 | own 23#8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#107 | 57.3#125 |
| Stat | Rice | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#50 | -0.11#129 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#102 | +0.23#43 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#106 | -0.10#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#68 | +0.06#83 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1%#49 | 30.0%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 28.6%#134 | 45.2%#59 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.1%#14 | 22.7%#124 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#77 | 32.3%#62 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#89 | 32.4%#99 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#104 | 32.4%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.2%#116 | 36.8%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#84 | 54.2%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 77.8%#120 | 59.8%#70 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rice schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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