Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida Atlantic 32.5, Rice 24.1 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Florida Atlantic wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 56.6 combined points.
Rice is 1-6, scoring 17 and allowing 29 points per game (-12 per game). Florida Atlantic is 4-2, scoring 35 and allowing 31.5 points per game (+3.5 per game).
Rice's struggling offense (123rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rice puts up. Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rice's below-average defense (111th); that mismatch is where most of Florida Atlantic's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rice by 14 and Florida Atlantic by 31 about 80% of the time.
Florida Atlantic gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida Atlantic by about 6.3. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Rice 49, Florida Atlantic 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.4 points and the total by 43.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rice / Florida Atlantic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 54.5 | +270 / -350 |
| Opening line | Florida Atlantic -10.5 | 58.5 | +320 / -410 |
| DraftKings | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 55.5 | +270 / -340 |
| FanDuel | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 55.5 | +275 / -350 |
| BetRivers | Florida Atlantic -10 | 54.5 | +280 / -375 |
| BetMGM | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 54.5 | +270 / -350 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida Atlantic win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida Atlantic -8.5 | 56.6 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 54.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Florida Atlantic -9.5 | 55.1 | 74% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida Atlantic win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Florida Atlantic -8.4 · market Florida Atlantic -9.5 · difference -1.1 pts (Florida Atlantic view)
- Total
- model 56.6 · market 54.5 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Rice than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rice 24.1, Florida Atlantic 32.5 | Florida Atlantic 71%right winner | 6.4 | 43.4 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Rice 49, Florida Atlantic 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rice vs Florida Atlantic: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rice | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.1#121 | 29.5#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.9#124 | 36.3#132 |
| Yards per play | 4.78#134 | 6.02#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32#116 | 6.03#94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.4#19 | 118.8#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 92.8#135 | 334.5#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.7#90 | 213.8#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.9#92 | 208.6#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#3 | 2.08#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.46#134 | 0.58#127 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#77 | 1.92#78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54#43 | 1.75#66 |
| Stat | Rice | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#120 | +0.08#41 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#109 | +0.07#110 |
| Success rate | 37.2%#122 | 42.5%#68 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#54 | 44.4%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.7%#135 | 12.1%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#93 | 14.4%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#115 | 11.3%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#94 | 11.7%#62 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#96 | 3.74#94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.45#122 | 4.54#128 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#124 | own 31#43 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 32#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4#106 | 75.3#4 |
| Stat | Rice | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#109 | -0.04#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#122 | +0.15#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#84 | +0.12#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#106 | +0.01#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.9%#110 | 41.4%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 32.9%#131 | 42.6%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3%#105 | 16.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.5%#136 | 32.1%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#101 | 28.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6%#121 | 38.6%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.7%#103 | 44.9%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.6%#32 | 49.4%#122 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.6%#136 | 67.5%#114 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rice schedule · Florida Atlantic schedule · all Week 8 projections
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