Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rice 39.5, Houston Christian 8.6 at First Community Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Rice wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.9 points and 48.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Houston Christian is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 28 points per game (+6 per game). Rice has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Houston Christian plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Rice's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rice by 8 and Rice by 53 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rice by about 28.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Houston Christian 3, Rice 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.9 points and the total by 14.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston Christian / Rice) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rice -23.5 → Rice -22.75 | 47.5 | +1075 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | Rice -24.5 → Rice -22.5 | 47.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
| Bovada | Rice -22.5 → Rice -23 | 47.5 | +950 / -2000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rice win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rice -31 | 48.1 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Rice -23 | 47.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Rice -24 | 48.5 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rice win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Rice -30.9 · market Rice -22.75 · difference +8.1 pts (Rice view)
- Total
- model 48.1 · market 47.5 · difference +0.6
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Rice than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston Christian 8.6, Rice 39.5 | Rice 98%right winner | 2.9 | 14.1 |
| New formula | Houston Christian 14.0, Rice 39.0 | Rice 93%right winner | 3.0 | 19.0 |
Final: Houston Christian 3, Rice 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston Christian vs Rice: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Houston Christian | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 19.1#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 32.9#124 |
| Yards per play | 4.38 | 4.78#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 6.32#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4 | 210.4#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 131.0 | 92.8#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9 | 179.7#90 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6 | 229.9#92 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 0.38#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 0.46#134 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 1.92#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.45 | 1.54#43 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.08#120 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.07#109 |
| Success rate | 34.7% | 37.2%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 40.4%#54 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 8.7%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 13.1%#93 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 10.8%#115 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 12.9%#94 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.37 | 3.71#96 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86 | 4.45#122 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 28#124 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#105 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 63.4#106 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.05#109 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.14#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.02#84 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.12#106 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 38.9%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 29.5% | 32.9%#131 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 20.3%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 20.5%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 32.1%#101 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.9% | 34.6%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0% | 43.7%#103 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.2% | 67.6%#32 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 80.6%#136 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 1 projections
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