Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 36.7, Rice 13.1 at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.6 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Rice is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 3 points per game (+28 per game). Notre Dame (No. 3) is 1-0, scoring 41 and allowing 13 points per game (+28 per game).
Expect Rice to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (2nd) outranks Rice's struggling offense (128th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.5 points against an average defense). Notre Dame's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rice's below-average defense (97th); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 1 and Notre Dame by 46 about 80% of the time.
Notre Dame gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Notre Dame by about 21.5. The game is on NBC.
Result: Rice 0, Notre Dame 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 28.4 points and the total by 2.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Rice / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -44.5 → Notre Dame -44.75 | 53.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -44.5 → Notre Dame -45 | 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -44.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -23.5 | 49.8 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -45 | 54.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -41.5 | 54.7 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -23.6 · market Notre Dame -44.75 · difference -21.1 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 54.5 · difference -4.7
Model margin is 21.1 pts more toward Rice than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rice 13.1, Notre Dame 36.7 | Notre Dame 94%right winner | 28.4 | 2.2 |
| New formula | Rice 0.8, Notre Dame 50.6 | Notre Dame 100%right winner | 2.2 | 0.6 |
Final: Rice 0, Notre Dame 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Rice vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Rice | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.1#121 | 42.0#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.9#124 | 17.6#11 |
| Yards per play | 4.78#134 | 7.41#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32#116 | 5.09#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.4#19 | 211.8#18 |
| Net passing yards per game | 92.8#135 | 251.5#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.7#90 | 118.6#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.9#92 | 225.4#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#3 | 0.83#33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.46#134 | 2.25#1 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#77 | 2.83#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54#43 | 1.00#10 |
| Stat | Rice | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#120 | +0.18#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#109 | -0.11#10 |
| Success rate | 37.2%#122 | 49.1%#9 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#54 | 36.1%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.7%#135 | 17.1%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#93 | 9.6%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#115 | 13.7%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#94 | 11.7%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#96 | 4.64#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.45#122 | 3.16#12 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#124 | own 33#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 27#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4#106 | 62.5#116 |
| Stat | Rice | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#109 | +0.13#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#122 | +0.25#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#84 | -0.10#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#106 | -0.13#21 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.9%#110 | 48.1%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 32.9%#131 | 50.3%#7 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3%#105 | 22.4%#126 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.5%#136 | 42.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#101 | 25.9%#21 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6%#121 | 50.0%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.7%#103 | 37.1%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.6%#32 | 70.4%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.6%#136 | 58.3%#55 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rice schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 2 projections
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