Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 33.9, UNLV 28 at DATCU Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: North Texas wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 61.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
UNLV is 1-1, scoring 21 and allowing 16.5 points per game (+4.5 per game). North Texas is 0-1, scoring 16 and allowing 52 points per game (-36 per game).
UNLV's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Texas's struggling defense (124th); that mismatch is where most of UNLV's projected points come from. North Texas's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets UNLV's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points North Texas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UNLV by 17 and North Texas by 28 about 80% of the time.
North Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Texas by about 3.8. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: UNLV 6, North Texas 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 32.1 points and the total by 11.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UNLV / North Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UNLV -5.5 → UNLV -2.75 | 59.25 → 58.25 | -166.5 / +142 |
| Bovada | UNLV -4.5 → UNLV -2.5 | 57 → 58 | -185 / +160 |
| DraftKings | UNLV -6.5 → UNLV -3 | 61.5 → 58.5 | -148 / +124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -6 | 61.8 | 65% |
| Market consensus | UNLV -2.5 | 58.3 | 40% |
| Blended projection | UNLV -1.5 | 58.6 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Texas win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +25 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -5.9 · market UNLV -2.75 · difference +8.7 pts (North Texas view)
- Total
- model 61.8 · market 58.25 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 8.7 pts more toward North Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UNLV 28.0, North Texas 33.9 | North Texas 65%right winner | 32.1 | 11.8 |
| New formula | UNLV 29.2, North Texas 30.5 | North Texas 53%right winner | 36.8 | 9.7 |
Final: UNLV 6, North Texas 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UNLV vs North Texas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UNLV | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.1#18 | 45.1#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#89 | 26.5#78 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#11 | 7.46#2 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34#118 | 5.64#54 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.6#26 | 206.4#22 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.2#41 | 326.6#2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.5#104 | 230.0#135 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.2#94 | 174.9#16 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#56 | 0.93#57 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#38 | 1.93#5 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#44 | 1.64#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.71#63 | 1.29#21 |
| Stat | UNLV | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#12 | +0.24#2 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#95 | +0.07#103 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#21 | 51.5%#3 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2%#92 | 42.8%#87 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.8%#9 | 17.3%#2 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#110 | 10.1%#26 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#88 | 11.9%#89 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#92 | 9.1%#5 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.24#38 | 4.88#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#55 | 4.04#90 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#102 | own 35#4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#41 | own 30#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#87 | 71.4#17 |
| Stat | UNLV | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#7 | +0.21#4 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#31 | +0.27#5 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#125 | +0.14#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#68 | -0.05#44 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#18 | 52.4%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#26 | 50.2%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#77 | 15.1%#22 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#18 | 38.8%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#89 | 29.4%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1%#31 | 48.0%#19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#23 | 44.6%#110 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.1%#52 | 74.7%#7 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#101 | 62.0%#84 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UNLV schedule · North Texas schedule · all Week 2 projections
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