2026 schedule
UNLV Rebels
2026 season so far
UNLV is 4-3 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+0.4 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings UNLV ranks 81st of 139 FBS teams overall — 86th on offense and 75th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Northern Illinois in Week 9. We project UNLV 36, Northern Illinois 17 — UNLV wins 89% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Memphis Tigers
1-0 · SOS #104
Loss 21-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 2.5
Total 59.7
DraftKings
UNLV -4.5
Total 55.5
Final Memphis by 6. Memphis beat the spread. 48 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -4.75 (open UNLV -3) · O/U 55.5 (open 60.5) · ML +154.5 / -184 · UNLV 62% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -6 pct pts (UNLV view)
Fox Allegiant StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
0-2 · SOS #100
Win 21-6
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 1.7
Total 60.1
DraftKings
UNLV -2.5
Total 55.5
Final UNLV by 15. UNLV beat the spread. 27 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -2.75 (open UNLV -1.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 58.5) · ML -146 / +125 · Hawai'i 43% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +12 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
CW Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameShort dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed - at
North Texas Mean Green
1-1 · SOS #84
Loss 6-44
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 5.9
Total 61.9
DraftKings
UNLV -3
Total 58.5
Final North Texas by 38. North Texas beat the spread. 50 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -2.75 (open UNLV -5.5) · O/U 58.25 (open 59.25) · ML -166.5 / +142 · North Texas 40% no-vig · model vs market +8.6 pts, +25 pct pts (North Texas view)
ESPNU DATCU StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Akron Zips
1-3 · SOS #109
Win 38-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 4.2
Total 52.8
DraftKings
UNLV -13.5
Total 52.5
Final UNLV by 28. UNLV beat the spread. 48 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -13.5 (open UNLV -13.75) · O/U 52.75 (open 49.75) · ML -562.5 / +405 · Akron 19% no-vig · model vs market +9.3 pts, +20 pct pts (Akron view)
ESPN+ InfoCision StadiumPregame calls · how each did
J. Thomas RB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 75) · 70% · 113 ✗J. Arnold QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 44) · 69% · 28 ✓J. Arnold QB · High pass yds 214 (avg 200) · 54% · 290 ✓ - vs
California Golden Bears
2-3 · SOS #48
Win 39-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 5.2
Total 49.6
DraftKings
UNLV -1.5
Total 51.5
Final UNLV by 8. UNLV beat the spread. 70 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -1.75 · O/U 52.25 (open 53) · ML 0 / -120 · UNLV 52% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +11 pct pts (UNLV view)
Indoors (dome).CBSSN Allegiant StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedT. Reddicks WR · Low rec yds 53 (avg 79) · 74% · 36 ✓A. Mohammed RB · Low rec yds 29 (avg 42) · 74% · did not playC. Hendricks WR · Low catches 5.1 (avg 6) · 66% · 8 ✗ - vs
North Dakota State Bison
5-1 · SOS #123
Win 13-7
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 8.4
Total 50.4
DraftKings
NDSU -3
Total 47.5
Final UNLV by 6. UNLV beat the spread. 20 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -2.75 (open North Dakota State -3) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML -145 / +122.5 · UNLV 43% no-vig · model vs market -5.6 pts, -14 pct pts (UNLV view)
Indoors (dome).CW Allegiant StadiumPregame calls · how each did
T. Reddicks WR · Low rec yds 47 (avg 68) · 74% · 8 ✓J. Arnold QB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 54) · 70% · 60 ✗ - at
Air Force Falcons
5-1 · SOS #105
Loss 31-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 1.2
Total 49.6
DraftKings
AFA -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Air Force by 10. Air Force beat the spread. 72 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Air Force -0.25 (open UNLV -2) · O/U 49 (open 47.75) · ML -115 / -105 · Air Force 49% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Air Force view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAFF)CBSSN Falcon StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedBig-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 7-3Short road dog · better YPP: missedBig-yardage short dogShort dog · much better YPP · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 218 hits, 191 misses (53% hit rate) over 409 graded games · 2026: 10-8Short dog · much better YPP: missed3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 statsUnranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 statsJ. Arnold QB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 55) · 69% · 78 ✗E. Medders QB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 56) · 68% · 152 ✗ - vs
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-7 · SOS #59
Sun, Nov 1, 2:30 AM
Week 9
Proj 36-17 · 89%
Our number
UNLV by 19
Total 53
DraftKings
UNLV -23.5
Total 53.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Northern Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -24 · O/U 53.5 · ML +1200 / -2500 · UNLV 92% no-vig · model vs market -5.0 pts, -3 pct pts (UNLV view)
Indoors (dome).CBSSN Allegiant StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesUnranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rankPass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rankJ. Arnold QB · High pass yds 212 (avg 198) · 55% - vs
Wyoming Cowboys
5-3 · SOS #130
Sun, Nov 8, 3:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 26-17 · 73%
Our number
UNLV by 9
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Allegiant StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
New Mexico Lobos
6-1 · SOS #129
Sun, Nov 15, 12:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 19-31 · 23%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW University Stadium (NM)Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Arnold QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 58) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Thomas RB · Low rush yds 60 (avg 78) · 78%S. Humphrey RB · TD threat 75% - at
San José State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #121
Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 27-21 · 67%
Our number
UNLV by 6
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN CEFCU StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Nevada Wolf Pack
3-4 · SOS #112
Sun, Nov 29, 2:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 28-21 · 69%
Our number
UNLV by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Allegiant StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
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UNLV Rebels stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-2.4
80th in FBS
Adj. offense
24.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
27.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.1 | 99 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 23.7 | 64 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.73 | 94 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.93 | 88 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 188.6 | 47 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 187.9 | 109 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 198.1 | 121 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 198.3 | 52 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 60 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.43 | 16 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.43 | 41 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.29 | 102 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | 98 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | 52 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.9% | 118 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.8% | 53 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.1% | 112 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.3% | 121 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.5% | 64 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | 86 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.40 | 120 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.49 | 41 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 74 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 27 | 33 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.7 | 71 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | 103 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.06 | 80 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.12 | 113 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.10 | 21 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.2% | 127 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | 87 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.5% | 61 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.5% | 116 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.0% | 62 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.7% | 58 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.2% | 74 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 55.7% | 100 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.2% | 23 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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