Matchup analysis
Our model projects UNLV 36, Northern Illinois 17 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: UNLV wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.8 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Northern Illinois is 0-7 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-23.5 per game). UNLV is 4-3 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+0.4 per game).
UNLV's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th) should limit Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: UNLV's below-average offense (86th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) against Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 4 and UNLV by 41 about 80% of the time.
UNLV gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UNLV by about 16.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Illinois / UNLV) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UNLV -24 | 53.5 | +1200 / -2500 |
| DraftKings | UNLV -23.5 | 53.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
| BetMGM | UNLV -24 | 53.5 | +1300 / -2500 |
| FanDuel | UNLV -24.5 | 54.5 | +1280 / -3500 |
| theScore Bet | UNLV -23.5 | 53.5 | +1000 / -2000 |
| Pinnacle | UNLV -24 | 53.5 | +1168 / -2384 |
| Bovada | UNLV -24 | 54 | +1000 / -2500 |
| BetRivers | UNLV -24 | 53.5 | +1200 / -10000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | UNLV -23.5 | 53.5 | +1200 / -3000 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UNLV win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UNLV -19 | 52.5 | 89% |
| Market consensus | UNLV -24 | 53.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | UNLV -23.5 | 54.0 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UNLV win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model UNLV -18.8 · market UNLV -24 · difference -5.2 pts (UNLV view)
- Total
- model 52.5 · market 53.5 · difference -1.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies UNLV 94%.
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Northern Illinois vs UNLV: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1#135 | 24.1#99 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6#136 | 23.7#64 |
| Yards per play | 5.21#125 | 5.73#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.69#131 | 5.93#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.6#132 | 188.6#47 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.0#96 | 187.9#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 229.1#135 | 198.1#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#86 | 198.3#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#67 | 0.86#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#60 | 1.43#16 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#127 | 2.43#41 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.29#134 | 2.29#102 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | +0.04#98 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#128 | +0.02#52 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#126 | 38.9%#118 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.2%#137 | 39.8%#53 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#108 | 11.1%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#124 | 14.3%#121 |
| Havoc rate | 9.7%#137 | 14.5%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#103 | 13.9%#86 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#130 | 3.40#120 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#134 | 3.49#41 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#128 | own 30#74 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 27#33 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1#121 | 65.7#71 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#42 | +0.01#103 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#106 | +0.06#80 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#128 | +0.12#113 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#126 | -0.10#21 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8%#93 | 37.2%#127 |
| Passing success rate | 35.0%#125 | 40.0%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9%#97 | 16.5%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#132 | 26.5%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.6%#137 | 29.0%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#126 | 42.7%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 61.5%#138 | 39.2%#74 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.1%#129 | 55.7%#100 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#132 | 47.2%#23 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · UNLV schedule · all Week 9 projections
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