Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Hawai'i 30.9, UNLV 29.2 at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Hawai'i wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 60.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
UNLV is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). Hawai'i is 0-1, scoring 27 and allowing 37 points per game (-10 per game).
UNLV's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Hawai'i's below-average defense (107th); that mismatch is where most of UNLV's projected points come from. Hawai'i's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets UNLV's below-average defense (94th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Hawai'i puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UNLV by 21 and Hawai'i by 24 about 80% of the time.
Hawai'i gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field UNLV would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on CW.
Result: UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6. UNLV won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UNLV / Hawai'i) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UNLV -1.5 → UNLV -2.75 | 58.5 → 55.5 | -146 / +125 |
| Bovada | UNLV -1.5 → UNLV -3 | 58.5 → 55.5 | -150 / +130 |
| DraftKings | UNLV -1.5 → UNLV -2.5 | 55.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Hawai'i win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Hawai'i -1.5 | 60.1 | 54% |
| Market consensus | UNLV -2.5 | 55.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | UNLV -2 | 56.1 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Hawai'i win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Hawai'i -1.7 · market UNLV -2.75 · difference +4.5 pts (Hawai'i view)
- Total
- model 60.1 · market 55.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 4.5 pts more toward Hawai'i than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UNLV 29.2, Hawai'i 30.9 | Hawai'i 54%wrong winner | 16.7 | 33.1 |
| New formula | UNLV 27.9, Hawai'i 31.4 | Hawai'i 59%wrong winner | 18.6 | 32.3 |
Final: UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UNLV vs Hawai'i: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UNLV | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.1#18 | 29.0#56 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#89 | 24.1#61 |
| Yards per play | 7.05#11 | 6.04#56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34#118 | 6.18#106 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.6#26 | 116.5#128 |
| Net passing yards per game | 253.2#41 | 305.2#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.5#104 | 153.5#53 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.2#94 | 223.2#78 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#56 | 1.31#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#38 | 0.69#118 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#44 | 2.23#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.71#63 | 2.23#97 |
| Stat | UNLV | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#12 | +0.02#77 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#95 | +0.01#74 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#21 | 41.1%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2%#92 | 41.7%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.8%#9 | 12.3%#72 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#110 | 12.6%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#88 | 11.4%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#92 | 10.9%#36 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.24#38 | 4.05#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#55 | 3.73#50 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#102 | own 30#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#41 | own 29#60 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#87 | 69.8#29 |
| Stat | UNLV | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#7 | -0.13#133 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#31 | +0.12#35 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#125 | +0.04#93 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#68 | -0.01#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#18 | 38.2%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#26 | 43.5%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#77 | 21.1%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#18 | 33.6%#32 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#89 | 31.0%#88 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1%#31 | 48.5%#15 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#23 | 39.2%#52 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.1%#52 | 59.4%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#101 | 59.2%#62 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UNLV schedule · Hawai'i schedule · all Week 1 projections
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