Matchup analysis
Our model projects UNLV 27, San José State 21 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: UNLV wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 48 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
UNLV is 4-3 against the 82nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+0.4 per game). San José State is 4-4 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.1 per game).
UNLV's below-average offense (86th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets San José State's below-average defense (100th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UNLV puts up. UNLV's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th) should limit San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UNLV by 29 and San José State by 16 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UNLV is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UNLV vs San José State: stat comparison
| Stat | UNLV | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.1#99 | 20.4#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#64 | 22.5#56 |
| Yards per play | 5.73#94 | 5.52#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.93#88 | 5.36#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.6#47 | 140.8#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 187.9#109 | 219.0#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.1#121 | 164.8#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.3#52 | 222.8#96 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#60 | 0.88#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#16 | 1.13#42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#41 | 3.63#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#102 | 2.25#97 |
| Stat | UNLV | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#98 | -0.04#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#52 | +0.02#55 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#118 | 37.1%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#53 | 41.7%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#112 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.3%#121 | 10.9%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#64 | 15.1%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#86 | 15.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40#120 | 3.71#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#41 | 3.19#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#74 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#33 | own 30#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7#71 | 65.1#74 |
| Stat | UNLV | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#103 | -0.08#130 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#80 | +0.00#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#113 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#21 | +0.00#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2%#127 | 34.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#87 | 40.2%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#61 | 18.8%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#116 | 22.4%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#62 | 28.5%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#58 | 31.2%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2%#74 | 37.7%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.7%#100 | 54.5%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.2%#23 | 54.9%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UNLV schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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