Matchup analysis
Our model projects UNLV 28, Nevada 21 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: UNLV wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.5 points and 49.5 combined points.
Nevada is 3-4 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.3 and allowing 22 points per game (+4.3 per game). UNLV is 4-3 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.1 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+0.4 per game).
Expect Nevada to find it hard going: UNLV's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th) outranks Nevada's below-average offense (106th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense). UNLV's below-average offense (86th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) meets Nevada's below-average defense (93rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UNLV puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nevada by 15 and UNLV by 30 about 80% of the time.
UNLV gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UNLV by about 5.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Nevada vs UNLV: stat comparison
| Stat | Nevada | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.3#88 | 24.1#99 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#54 | 23.7#64 |
| Yards per play | 5.61#104 | 5.73#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.78#13 | 5.93#88 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.7#44 | 188.6#47 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.0#119 | 187.9#109 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.4#103 | 198.1#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 140.6#4 | 198.3#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71#137 | 0.86#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#128 | 1.43#16 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#42 | 2.43#41 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#35 | 2.29#102 |
| Stat | Nevada | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00#114 | +0.04#98 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#44 | +0.02#52 |
| Success rate | 40.4%#105 | 38.9%#118 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#30 | 39.8%#53 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#86 | 11.1%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#13 | 14.3%#121 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#32 | 14.5%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#108 | 13.9%#86 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#44 | 3.40#120 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#91 | 3.49#41 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#71 | own 30#74 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#125 | own 27#33 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9#77 | 65.7#71 |
| Stat | Nevada | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.01#103 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#125 | +0.06#80 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#47 | +0.12#113 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#42 | -0.10#21 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#39 | 37.2%#127 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#131 | 40.0%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#128 | 16.5%#61 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#72 | 26.5%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#30 | 29.0%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#71 | 42.7%#58 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.2%#9 | 39.2%#74 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#85 | 55.7%#100 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.2%#89 | 47.2%#23 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nevada schedule · UNLV schedule · all Week 13 projections
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