Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 42.6, Houston Christian 19.1 at DATCU Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: North Texas wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.5 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Houston Christian is 2-2, scoring 37 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+14.7 per game). North Texas is 1-2, scoring 31.7 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-4 per game).
Houston Christian plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why North Texas's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 1 and North Texas by 46 about 80% of the time.
North Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Texas by about 21.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Houston Christian 14, North Texas 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.5 points and the total by 15.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston Christian / North Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Texas -37.5 → North Texas -38.25 | 59.25 → 60.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | North Texas -37.5 → North Texas -38.5 | 58.5 → 60.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | North Texas -37.5 → North Texas -38 | 60 → 60.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -23.5 | 61.7 | 94% |
| Market consensus | North Texas -38.5 | 60.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | North Texas -36 | 60.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Texas win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -23.5 · market North Texas -38.25 · difference -14.7 pts (North Texas view)
- Total
- model 61.7 · market 60.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 14.7 pts more toward Houston Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston Christian 19.1, North Texas 42.6 | North Texas 94%right winner | 25.5 | 15.3 |
| New formula | Houston Christian 17.6, North Texas 43.1 | North Texas 95%right winner | 23.6 | 16.3 |
Final: Houston Christian 14, North Texas 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston Christian vs North Texas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Houston Christian | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.0 | 31.7#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.3 | 35.7#127 |
| Yards per play | 6.29 | 6.72#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.80 | 7.03#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.3 | 151.0#97 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.8 | 337.0#7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 239.5 | 199.0#122 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 117.0 | 239.0#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50 | 0.67#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.67#108 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.33#105 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 0.67#27 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.23#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.20#129 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 45.6%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8% | 47.2%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6% | 14.6%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.7% | 13.4%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7% | 9.0%#133 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 10.5%#24 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 4.47#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.51 | 4.06#83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 28#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | own 38#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 72.7#20 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.04#91 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24 | +0.37#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.02#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12 | +0.47#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0% | 39.3%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 36.4% | 51.4%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 18.1%#89 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0% | 37.1%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.2% | 35.3%#116 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.7% | 53.5%#19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 52.8%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.9% | 66.6%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 56.0%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · North Texas schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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