Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 31.9, Navy 30 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: North Texas wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 61.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
North Texas is 4-2, scoring 42.2 and allowing 29.2 points per game (+13 per game). Navy is 2-4, scoring 28.2 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+2.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) against Navy's below-average defense (86th). Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over North Texas's below-average defense (116th); that mismatch is where most of Navy's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 24 and Navy by 21 about 80% of the time.
Navy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: North Texas 49, Navy 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 26.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Texas / Navy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Texas -3 | 60.5 | -150 / +125 |
| Opening line | North Texas -1.5 | 61.5 | -122 / +102 |
| DraftKings | North Texas -3 | 60.5 | -148 / +124 |
| FanDuel | North Texas -3.5 | 60.5 | -160 / +130 |
| BetRivers | North Texas -2.5 | 61.5 | -141 / +112 |
| BetMGM | North Texas -3 | 59.5 | -150 / +125 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Navy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -2 | 61.9 | 45% |
| Market consensus | North Texas -3 | 60.5 | 44% |
| Blended projection | North Texas -3 | 60.6 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Navy win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 44% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -1.9 · market North Texas -3 · difference +1.1 pts (Navy view)
- Total
- model 61.9 · market 60.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Navy than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Texas 31.9, Navy 30.0 | North Texas 55%right winner | 8.1 | 26.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: North Texas 49, Navy 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Texas vs Navy: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Texas | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.1#1 | 31.5#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5#78 | 25.0#69 |
| Yards per play | 7.46#2 | 6.75#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#54 | 5.98#92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 206.4#22 | 295.8#1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.6#2 | 126.1#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 230.0#135 | 155.8#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.9#16 | 221.0#73 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#57 | 0.69#14 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.93#5 | 1.00#74 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64#97 | 2.08#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#21 | 0.69#3 |
| Stat | North Texas | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#2 | +0.20#5 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#103 | +0.04#89 |
| Success rate | 51.5%#3 | 49.4%#8 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#87 | 39.8%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.3%#2 | 14.2%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#26 | 12.0%#60 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#89 | 10.7%#116 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1%#5 | 8.4%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.88#7 | 4.28#36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04#90 | 4.13#100 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#4 | own 32#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#73 | own 28#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.4#17 | 62.5#114 |
| Stat | North Texas | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#4 | +0.21#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27#5 | +0.17#22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#133 | -0.03#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#44 | +0.12#107 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.4%#3 | 52.4%#2 |
| Passing success rate | 50.2%#8 | 41.5%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#22 | 10.9%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.8%#6 | 33.7%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#70 | 29.1%#65 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0%#19 | 52.8%#5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6%#110 | 40.6%#71 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.7%#7 | 73.6%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.0%#84 | 58.2%#54 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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