Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected North Texas 31.9, Tulsa 26.2 at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: North Texas wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 58 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Texas is 2-2, scoring 39.5 and allowing 30.3 points per game (+9.2 per game). Tulsa is 3-1, scoring 23.8 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: North Texas's strong offense (29th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.9 points against an average defense) against Tulsa's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th). Tulsa's below-average offense (110th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) meets North Texas's below-average defense (106th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 28 and Tulsa by 17 about 80% of the time.
Tulsa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Texas is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: North Texas 45, Tulsa 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.7 points and the total by 31.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Texas / Tulsa) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulsa -0.25 → North Texas -2 | 57.75 → 56.75 | -21.5 / -0.5 |
| Bovada | Tulsa -2 → North Texas -1 | 58 → 57 | +105 / -125 |
| DraftKings | North Texas -1.5 → North Texas -3 | 57.5 → 56.5 | -148 / +124 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulsa win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -5.5 | 58.0 | 35% |
| Market consensus | North Texas -2 | 56.8 | 48% |
| Blended projection | North Texas -2.5 | 57.1 | 43% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulsa win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 48% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -5.7 · market North Texas -2 · difference -3.7 pts (Tulsa view)
- Total
- model 58.0 · market 56.75 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 3.7 pts more toward North Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Texas 31.9, Tulsa 26.2 | North Texas 65%right winner | 4.7 | 31.0 |
| New formula | North Texas 31.9, Tulsa 27.0 | North Texas 63%right winner | 3.9 | 30.0 |
Final: North Texas 45, Tulsa 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Texas vs Tulsa: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Texas | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.5#25 | 23.8#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3#117 | 15.3#26 |
| Yards per play | 7.47#13 | 5.60#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45#120 | 5.03#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 177.0#62 | 189.8#46 |
| Net passing yards per game | 351.3#5 | 163.3#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 177.5#109 | 132.5#56 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 223.8#90 | 242.5#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#46 | 0.50#30 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#70 | 1.25#31 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#84 | 3.00#18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#23 | 1.50#58 |
| Stat | North Texas | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.35#3 | +0.06#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#122 | -0.12#13 |
| Success rate | 51.5%#10 | 38.2%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.5%#127 | 38.4%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#9 | 9.9%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#95 | 8.5%#5 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#119 | 12.5%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6%#7 | 14.2%#90 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.72#30 | 3.40#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#97 | 2.70#4 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 30#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 36#136 | own 26#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.8#26 | 63.0#96 |
| Stat | North Texas | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#43 | +0.21#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.51#5 | -0.10#119 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#58 | -0.15#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.45#136 | -0.08#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#66 | 42.4%#91 |
| Passing success rate | 56.5%#9 | 33.9%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9%#65 | 13.0%#21 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.4%#25 | 16.0%#138 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#109 | 32.3%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 56.0%#6 | 27.3%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1%#115 | 36.1%#57 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#23 | 57.1%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#63 | 28.6%#1 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · Tulsa schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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