Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Army 31.6, Florida Atlantic 26.3 at Michie Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Army wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 57.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Florida Atlantic is 4-1, scoring 37.2 and allowing 26.6 points per game (+10.6 per game). Army is 3-2, scoring 30.6 and allowing 19.2 points per game (+11.4 per game).
Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida Atlantic puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Army's below-average offense (83rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) against Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (120th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 17 and Army by 28 about 80% of the time.
Army gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Army by about 3.2. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.7 points and the total by 22.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida Atlantic / Army) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -3 → Army -2.25 | 58 → 55.5 | +117.5 / -137.5 |
| DraftKings | Army -3 → Army -2.5 | 59.5 → 55.5 | +110 / -130 |
| Bovada | Army -3 → Army -2 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +125 / -145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Army win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Army -5.5 | 57.9 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Army -2.5 | 55.5 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Army -3 | 56.0 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Army win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Army -5.3 · market Army -2.25 · difference +3.1 pts (Army view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 55.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Army than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida Atlantic 26.3, Army 31.6 | Army 64%right winner | 26.7 | 22.1 |
| New formula | Florida Atlantic 26.3, Army 31.4 | Army 63%right winner | 26.9 | 22.4 |
Final: Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida Atlantic vs Army: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.2#28 | 30.6#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6#98 | 19.2#40 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#103 | 6.19#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32#115 | 6.63#125 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.8#113 | 325.6#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 280.2#23 | 80.6#136 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.8#99 | 161.4#81 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.4#112 | 192.6#51 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40#27 | 0.40#26 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#35 | 0.20#135 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#110 | 0.80#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#77 | 0.40#5 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#59 | +0.21#21 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#94 | +0.18#123 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#51 | 50.1%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.9%#46 | 43.6%#100 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#115 | 12.6%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8%#111 | 15.0%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#51 | 13.2%#88 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#63 | 10.5%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.07#77 | 4.67#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.84#73 | 3.29#28 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#25 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#27 | own 25#11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.6#6 | 65.6#68 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#61 | +0.23#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#56 | +0.18#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#118 | +0.12#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#66 | +0.24#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5%#95 | 53.1%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 50.3%#24 | 43.1%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#55 | 11.9%#9 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#26 | 33.6%#50 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#65 | 38.0%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#22 | 53.3%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.6%#59 | 38.9%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.6%#71 | 66.2%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.1%#112 | 50.6%#41 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · Army schedule · all Week 7 projections
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