Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Navy 32.4, Florida Atlantic 27.1 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Navy wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Navy is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 15 points per game (+27 per game). Florida Atlantic is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 66 points per game (-45 per game).
Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (136th); that mismatch is where most of Navy's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense) against Navy's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 28 and Florida Atlantic by 17 about 80% of the time.
Florida Atlantic gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Navy is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38. Florida Atlantic won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Navy / Florida Atlantic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Navy -6 → Navy -4.5 | 58.25 → 59.5 | -211.5 / +174.5 |
| DraftKings | Navy -6.5 → Navy -4.5 | 57.5 → 59.5 | -198 / +164 |
| Bovada | Navy -5.5 → Navy -4.5 | 59 → 59.5 | -225 / +185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida Atlantic win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Navy -5.5 | 59.5 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Navy -4.5 | 59.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Navy -4.5 | 59.6 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida Atlantic win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Navy -5.3 · market Navy -4.5 · difference -0.8 pts (Florida Atlantic view)
- Total
- model 59.5 · market 59.5 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Navy than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Navy 32.4, Florida Atlantic 27.1 | Navy 64%wrong winner | 13.3 | 8.5 |
| New formula | Navy 33.3, Florida Atlantic 31.7 | Navy 54%wrong winner | 9.6 | 3.0 |
Final: Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Navy vs Florida Atlantic: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Navy | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.5#31 | 29.5#51 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#69 | 36.3#132 |
| Yards per play | 6.75#19 | 6.02#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.98#92 | 6.03#94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 295.8#1 | 118.8#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 126.1#131 | 334.5#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.8#58 | 213.8#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.0#73 | 208.6#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.69#14 | 2.08#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#74 | 0.58#127 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#61 | 1.92#78 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.69#3 | 1.75#66 |
| Stat | Navy | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#5 | +0.08#41 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#89 | +0.07#110 |
| Success rate | 49.4%#8 | 42.5%#68 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#47 | 44.4%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#23 | 12.1%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#60 | 14.4%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 10.7%#116 | 11.3%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.4%#2 | 11.7%#62 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.28#36 | 3.74#94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13#100 | 4.54#128 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#27 | own 31#43 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#24 | own 32#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#114 | 75.3#4 |
| Stat | Navy | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#3 | -0.04#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#22 | +0.15#29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#43 | +0.12#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#107 | +0.01#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.4%#2 | 41.4%#94 |
| Passing success rate | 41.5%#60 | 42.6%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.9%#1 | 16.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#30 | 32.1%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1%#65 | 28.3%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.8%#5 | 38.6%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.6%#71 | 44.9%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.6%#12 | 49.4%#122 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.2%#54 | 67.5%#114 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Navy schedule · Florida Atlantic schedule · all Week 2 projections
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